These are from Undernet #Forum 2021_April16th thru 2021_April18th.

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[09:20:04] *** lakitu sets mode: +o xControlFreq
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[13:23:27] <lakitu> celery salt can be used to cure bacon.
[13:23:42] <lakitu> it’s pretty tasty juiced.
[13:31:39] <lakitu> well I’m up – here – getting a late start on my day
[13:32:08] <lakitu> ControlFreq, Crux, inhahe, kblom, if you’re around
[13:32:19] <ControlFreq> ZZZZZZzzz14zzzzzz15zzzzzz
[13:32:20] <lakitu> friida’s usually off until like she says 5
[13:32:23] <ControlFreq> Mfnzt….
[13:32:24] <lakitu> ZZZzzz
[13:32:25] <ControlFreq> What?
[13:32:26] <lakitu> lol
[13:32:27] <lakitu> LOL
[13:32:34] <lakitu> ha ha
[13:32:43] <lakitu> hey
[13:33:12] <lakitu> I can chat for a bit if you want to
[13:33:39] <lakitu> I had a question for you as an elder, if you didn’t have anything for the docket
[13:37:09] <lakitu> I can cough it up, for us:
[13:37:12] <lakitu> risk.
[13:37:51] <lakitu> – how are we best to handle risk?
[13:38:03] <lakitu> excuse me:
[13:38:04] <lakitu> investments.
[13:38:10] <lakitu> – they’re connected –
[13:38:32] <lakitu> how are we best to handle investments – I had meant – ?
[13:39:07] <lakitu> – & I mean of energy (personal energy), of things of all kinds & calibers, not just money
[13:41:27] <lakitu> (of all kinds & calibres) – what sapience, wisdom, perhaps understandings do you have of how best to handle investment?
[14:03:13] <lakitu> Freq, any commentary on investments – how best to handle them?
[14:07:42] *** Joins: MagnusRM2 ([email protected])
[14:07:51] <MagnusRM2> hello
[14:07:52] <lakitu> hey thanks MagnusRM2
[14:08:02] <MagnusRM2> thanks for inviting me
[14:08:13] <lakitu> welcome, welcome, welcome.
[14:08:21] <MagnusRM2> :)
[14:08:31] <lakitu> feel free to discourse on most anything that matters to you #here
[14:09:07] <MagnusRM2> ok, sure
[14:10:13] <lakitu> # F O R U M The house that Jack built. | Investments of energy, money – what wisdom do you use, have about investing wisely?
[14:10:20] <lakitu> argh
[14:10:51] *** lakitu changes topic to ‘# F O R U M The house that Jack built. | what wisdom do you use, have about investing energy, money, etc. wisely? ‘
[14:10:59] *** lakitu changes topic to ‘# F O R U M The house that Jack built. | What wisdom do you use, have about investing energy, money, etc. wisely? ‘
[14:11:07] <lakitu> was just posing a question to ControlFreq
[14:11:13] *** lakitu sets mode: +o MagnusRM2
[14:11:59] <lakitu> – re roaming hordes, we have to stay opped to not experience a channel take over
[14:12:08] * MagnusRM2 bans everybody and hijacks the channel
[14:12:10] <MagnusRM2> :)
[14:12:21] <lakitu> so try to keep at least the people who are here now opped
[14:12:23] <lakitu> ha ha ha
[14:12:41] <lakitu> not what I expect from you at all
[14:12:44] <MagnusRM2> hehe
[14:12:47] <MagnusRM2> just joking
[14:12:52] <lakitu> yeah
[14:13:09] <lakitu> you can comment too, tho, re investing wisely – wisdom about investments (of all kinds)
[14:13:36] <lakitu> proverbs you subscribe to
[14:13:44] <lakitu> pieces of wisdom
[14:14:21] <lakitu> or feel free to pose your own topic for discussion
[14:14:43] <MagnusRM2> ok
[14:15:42] <lakitu> Magnus is a mathematician(?) & programmer from Sweden, for anyone who hasn’t talked with him enough. he & I used to join #philosophy during its heyday.
[14:16:26] <MagnusRM2> yeah, those were the good days!
[14:16:41] <lakitu> yes they were
[14:16:50] <lakitu> =D
[14:18:43] <lakitu> MagnusRM2: do you have a website or website account people could look over some of the things you’ve made at?
[14:19:02] <lakitu> could look over some of the things you’ve made?*
[14:20:15] <MagnusRM2> usually i have, but my web hotel had some major changes a year ago or so, and I had to fix things to make my websites visible and working again, but i haven’t had the time to do that, so right now i have nothing, except one thing which is just a math tool, a math editor online
[14:20:36] <MagnusRM2> this one –> https://www.mathpearl.com/
[14:20:37] <lakitu> ok. ControlFreq is a nuclear researcher
[14:20:40] <^411> — “Online Rich Text Math Editor”
[14:20:51] <MagnusRM2> very cool
[14:20:57] <lakitu> he & kblom, kblom & he know their math very, very well
[14:21:05] <lakitu> ok – great
[14:21:21] <lakitu> yes – share things you’ve made, projects etc, up & down as much as you like in #here
[14:21:25] <lakitu> I think it’s good for the culture.
[14:21:40] <MagnusRM2> i recently saw some videos on youtube on how to make a cloud chamber to look at traces of elementary particles, i might built one some day
[14:21:51] <lakitu> wow.
[14:22:13] <MagnusRM2> it seems quite simple
[14:22:38] <MagnusRM2> if you are lucky you can even see traces of muons from outer space
[14:23:30] <lakitu> Freq & kblom know that stuff –
[14:23:39] <lakitu> gonna change the topic here – looking at your site
[14:24:16] *** lakitu changes topic to ‘# F O R U M The house that Jack built. | What wisdom do you use, have about investing energy, money, etc. wisely? | Share / show off stuff you’ve made!!’
[14:24:30] <lakitu> ah LaTeX
[14:24:44] <lakitu> .wiki LaTeX (math)
[14:24:50] <^411> “LaTeX (/ˈlɑːtɛx/ LAH-tekh or /ˈleɪtɛx/ LAY-tekh,[1] often stylized as LaTeX) is a software system for document preparation.[2] When writing, the writer uses plain text as opposed to the formatted text found in ‘What You See Is What You Get’ word processors like Microsoft Word, LibreOffice Writer and Apple Pages. The writer uses markup tagging conventions to define the general structure of a (…)”
[14:24:56] <^411> “document (such as article, book, and letter), to stylise text throughout a document (such as bold and italics), and to add citations and cross-references. A TeX distribution such as TeX Live or MiKTeX is used to produce an output file (such as PDF or DVI) suitable for printing or digital distribution. LaTeX is widely used in academia[3][4] for the communication and publication of scientific (…)”
[14:25:02] <^411> “documents in many fields, including mathematics, statistics, computer science, engineering, physics, economics, linguistics, quantitative psychology, philosophy, and political science. It also has a prominent role in the preparation and publication of books and articles that contain complex multilingual materials, such as Sanskrit and Greek.[5] LaTeX uses the TeX typesetting program for formatting its (…)”
[14:25:03] <^411> — from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LaTeX
[14:26:29] <MagnusRM2> the most cool thing in my math editor is perhaps not the latex ability, but that one can use AsciiMath, i.e. a very simple way to write math, similar to how you would write it for example here on IRC
[14:27:17] <lakitu> I saw that – now you didn’t invent AsciiMath, did you?
[14:27:45] <MagnusRM2> No, I just like it a lot
[14:27:55] <lakitu> it’s cool, I’m seeing it here
[14:28:12] <lakitu> markdown languages are cool
[14:29:52] <MagnusRM2> ok, good to chat with you lakitu, i need to go here, my irc client will remain connected though
[14:30:06] <MagnusRM2> see you later, tomorrow or so :)
[14:30:22] <lakitu> thanks, see you!
[14:31:43] *** lakitu changes topic to ‘# F O R U M The house that Jack built. | What wisdom do you use, have about investing – energy, money, etc. – wisely? | Share / show off stuff you’ve made!!’
[14:36:04] <lakitu> Magnus’s math page is pretty impressive
[14:49:58] * lakitu gotta bbiab
[15:09:37] *** Joins: MagnusRM3 ([email protected])
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[16:19:17] *** lakitu changes topic to ‘# F O R U M The house that Jack built. | What wisdom do you use, have about investing – energy, money, etc. – wisely? | Share / show off stuff you’ve made!!’
[16:24:40] *** lakitu changes topic to ‘# F O R U M The house that Jack built. | Share / show off stuff you’ve made!! | What wisdom do you use, have about investing – energy, money, etc. – wisely?’
[16:25:20] * lakitu feeling under the weather. back later
[16:46:53] *** Joins: ZShurp ([email protected])
[16:46:59] <lakitu> cool
[16:46:59] <ZShurp> So, what’s this all about?
[16:47:04] <lakitu> welcome ZShurp
[16:47:33] <lakitu> ZShurp: see pm
[16:48:13] <ZShurp> ok
[16:50:09] <lakitu> like I say, I’m a little under the weather, but feel to talk about about whatever matters to you in #here
[16:51:47] *** lakitu changes topic to ‘# F O R U M The house that Jack built. | Whatever matters to you. | Share / show off stuff you’ve made!! | How do we invest our energy, money, etc., wisely?’
[16:53:29] <lakitu> ZShurp: real quick, there’s a news bot I wrote most of, which I got the idea to add you, people like you to it. if you have: a website, a Twitter account, a YouTube channel, or anything with an RSS feed, I can add them to the bot & have them shared automatically & on demand
[16:53:37] <lakitu> .news list
[16:53:38] <^411> Available ^411 `.news` digests: THE NEW YORKER, Factotum (CCH), GRANTA, inhahe (Richard Nichols III), lakitu (Joe Valentyn), or simply use `.news` for a random fresh digest.
[16:53:50] <ZShurp> no, I get my news from news.google.com and www.wsws.org
[16:54:07] <lakitu> we’re miscommunicating, I mean a site of YOURS
[16:54:11] <lakitu> or Twitter account
[16:54:16] <lakitu> or YouTube channel
[16:54:17] <lakitu> etc
[16:54:28] <lakitu> where you post stuff
[16:55:18] <lakitu> like cchgeneralphilosophy.blogspot.com/
[16:55:23] <lakitu> like https://cchgeneralphilosophy.blogspot.com/
[16:55:24] <ZShurp> oh, heh
[16:55:27] <^411> — “CCH’s General Philosophy”
[16:55:31] <lakitu> – etc.
[16:55:40] <ZShurp> I’ll think about it
[16:55:45] <lakitu> ok
[16:55:47] <ZShurp> I admit I prefer the instant feedback of IRC
[16:55:52] <ZShurp> <– short attention span
[16:55:52] <lakitu> yeah
[16:55:59] <lakitu> I mean to put into the bot
[16:56:03] <lakitu> & have played on IRC
[16:56:25] <lakitu> but whenever – if you do.
[16:58:00] <lakitu> 411 is in #here too
[16:58:02] <lakitu> .help
[16:58:03] <^411> lakitu: By example: .bible Exodus 8:1-4; .biblesearch Render unto Caesar; .const amendment 1; .law libel / .law 20 U.S. Code § 1011a (a)(2)(C); .wiki/.wiki-3/.wiki-5 Dominant chord; .dict funnily / .dict German: Lieben; .ety/.ety-3 health;
[16:58:07] <^411> lakitu: .wiki-ety Esperanto; .wolfram What is the average income in the U.S?; .news The Economist; .web horse colors; .youtube Antonio Guterres May 30th 2019; .topic; .quote; .stocks DJIA; .market us/fus/ca/eu/asia/forex/bonds/rtcoum; .whereis New Dehli, India; .genera Bugs Bunny; .coupled/related/associated Martin Short; .translate :la :en amor; .urbandictionary troll; .weather/.forecast Minneapolis; .spellcheck trapeze; .suggest Karma sutra
[16:58:13] <^411> lakitu: URLs are checked via 50+ antivirus programs. All RSS feed TinyURL links are directly linking to their official RSS source URLs. See http://Wolframalpha.com/examples for lists of .wolfram examples.
[16:58:16] <lakitu> you too MagnusRM3 ^
[17:00:11] <lakitu> `.weather` is currently unweatherful.
[17:00:59] <lakitu> oh – & I wrote a new one the other night – stayed up all night:
[17:01:04] <lakitu> .quote Archimedes
[17:01:09] <^411> “The centre of gravity of any cylinder is the point of bisection of the axis.”
[17:01:11] <^411> — Archimedes, from https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Archimedes
[17:01:13] <lakitu> heh
[17:01:20] <lakitu> – thanks Archimedes.
[17:01:28] <lakitu> .quote Dolly Parton
[17:01:31] <^411> “I look so totally artificial, but I’ve always been the simplest person in the world.”
[17:01:33] <^411> — Dolly Parton, from https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Dolly_Parton
[17:01:54] <lakitu> finally wrote this – wanted it forever
[17:01:56] <lakitu> can also do works
[17:05:39] <lakitu> .help
[17:05:40] <^411> lakitu: By example: .bible Exodus 8:1-4; .biblesearch Render unto Caesar; .const amendment 1; .quote Dolly Parton; .law libel / .law 20 U.S. Code § 1011a (a)(2)(C); .wiki/.wiki-3/.wiki-5 Dominant chord; .dict funnily / .dict German: Lieben; .ety/.ety-3 health;
[17:05:44] <^411> lakitu: .wiki-ety Esperanto; .wolfram What is the average income in the U.S?; .news The Economist; .web horse colors; .youtube Antonio Guterres May 30th 2019; .topic; .quote; .stocks DJIA; .market us/fus/ca/eu/asia/forex/bonds/rtcoum; .whereis New Dehli, India; .genera Bugs Bunny; .coupled/related/associated Martin Short; .translate :la :en amor; .urbandictionary troll; .weather/.forecast Minneapolis; .spellcheck trapeze; .suggest Karma sutra
[17:05:48] <^411> lakitu: URLs are checked via 50+ antivirus programs. All RSS feed TinyURL links are directly linking to their official RSS source URLs. See http://Wolframalpha.com/examples for lists of .wolfram examples.
[17:07:19] <ZShurp> Remember, the 1918 flu didn’t last forever. It circled the globe a few times, infected everyone, then it died out. SARS-COV-2 will do the same thing.
[17:08:32] * lakitu listens
[17:08:43] <ZShurp> oops, wrong channel
[17:08:49] <ZShurp> I’m blathering over in #rebelyell :)
[17:09:03] <lakitu> ok
[17:12:53] <lakitu> here’s an excerpt from some recent chat: http://texthost.joevalentyn.org/paste.php?id=32
[17:12:55] <^411> — “#forum excerpt – modern pop philosophy vs. living life, courting, poetics, literature, & other more-personal things -”
[17:15:49] <lakitu> & “modern” there means modern era philosophy – 1600s-thru-1900s philosophy
[17:24:21] *** Quits: ZShurp ([email protected]) (Quit)
[17:26:26] * lakitu reading http://cchgeneralphilosophy.blogspot.com/2013/11/metaphilosophy-2-brief-introduction-to.html
[17:26:29] <^411> — “CCH’s General Philosophy: Metaphilosophy 2: A Brief Introduction to Logic”
[17:26:50] <lakitu> “There are three broad types of basic logic: propositional, predicate, and meta-predicate. Propositional logic deals with what are expressed by whole sentences, namely, propositions. It studies the effects of the operations of the so-called logical operators on the truth-values of various propositions. The logical operators are: “… and …”, “… or …”, “if … then …”, and “not …”. Each operator has an introduction and elimination rule
[17:26:50] <lakitu> associated with it that is designed to capture the standard English meaning of the operator; also, a good number of philosophers associate each operator with a truth-table, which governs how it affects truth-values in complex propositions.
[17:26:50] <lakitu> An important type of logical argument in philosophy is called reductio ad absurdum or reductio for short. The name is Latin for “reduction to absurdity” and signifies a general type of argument where you suppose some proposition, prove a contradiction (an absurdity) from it, and subsequently conclude that the proposition is false. Because of the nature of truth-tables, if you suppose for reductio some proposition that begins “not …”, you end
[17:26:55] <lakitu> up concluding “not not …” and can conclude “…” from there. That is, if you suppose not-P, you may be able to prove, via reductio, P.
[17:26:58] <lakitu> Predicate logic breaks propositions down into a predicate-subject format; usually, this is signified by something of the form “Ps” (read “s is P”). Predicate logic allows generalization over subjects, but not predicates, by introducing two new logical operators “for all …” and “there exists …” (a subject goes in the “…”); these operators are called the universal and existential respectively. Introduction and elimination rules exist for
[17:27:03] <lakitu> these operators as well; truth-table advocates utilize so-called truth-trees to establish the effects of these new operators on the truth-values of propositions.
[17:27:08] <lakitu> Finally, meta-predicate logic doesn’t introduce any new operators, but allows the universal and existential operators to generalize over predicates as well as subjects. Meta-predicate logic is important because certain important things, like “finite, but arbitrarily large”, cannot be expressed in any merely predicate logic.”
[17:28:41] <lakitu> – from Crux’s website.
[17:30:19] *** Quits: lakitu ([email protected]) (ZNC 1.7.5+deb4 – https://znc.in)
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[17:30:37] *** kblom sets mode: +o lakitu
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[17:31:23] *** Server sets mode: +s
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[17:33:52] <lakitu> well I want to say I am thankful for our little group – to have very gifted people – in many ways – with who we can discuss things that matter to us.
[17:35:24] <lakitu> from the old Undernet philosophy-forum fixture kblom to the new kid on the block, ControlFreq.
[17:37:10] <ControlFreq> Dude…the new kid on the block was chatting from San Diego with a friend in Japan on DARPANET in 1987
[17:37:29] <lakitu> heh – I mean in the Undernet philosophy rooms
[17:37:48] <lakitu> .wiki DARPANET
[17:37:53] <^411> “The Advanced Research Projects Agency Network (ARPANET) was the first wide-area packet-switching network with distributed control and one of the first networks to implement the TCP/IP protocol suite. Both technologies became the technical foundation of the Internet. The ARPANET was established by the Advanced Research Projects Agency (ARPA) of the United States Department of Defense.[1] Building on the (…)”
[17:37:59] <^411> “ideas of J. C. R. Licklider, Bob Taylor initiated the ARPANET project in 1966 to enable access to remote computers.[2] Taylor appointed Larry Roberts as program manager. Roberts made the key decisions about the network design.[3] He incorporated Donald Davies’ concepts and designs for packet switching,[4] and sought input from Paul Baran.[5] ARPA awarded the contract to build the (…)”
[17:38:04] <^411> “network to Bolt Beranek & Newman who developed the first protocol for the network.[6] Roberts engaged Leonard Kleinrock at UCLA to develop mathematical methods for analyzing the packet network technology.[5] The first computers were connected in 1969 and the Network Control Program was implemented in 1970.[7][8] Further software development enabled remote login, file transfer and (…)”
[17:38:06] <^411> — from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ARPANET
[17:38:33] <lakitu> I’d love to hear how you got on DARPANET in 1987
[17:45:00] <lakitu> .quote investing
[17:45:05] <^411> “I wonder if those who advocate generosity for its rewards notice the inconsistency, or if what they call generosity is an attractive investment strategy.”
[17:45:07] <^411> — Investment, from https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Investment
[17:45:17] <lakitu> ooh, I’ll need their names
[17:48:33] <lakitu> .wiki speculation (finance)
[17:48:39] <^411> “Speculation is the purchase of an asset (a commodity, goods, or real estate) with the hope that it will become more valuable in the near future. In finance, speculation is also the practice of engaging in risky financial transactions in an attempt to profit from short term fluctuations in the market value of a tradable financial instrument—rather than attempting to profit from the underlying financial (…)”
[17:48:45] <^411> “attributes embodied in the instrument such as value addition, return on investment, or dividends. Many speculators pay little attention to the fundamental value of a security and instead focus purely on price movements. Speculation can in principle involve any tradable good or financial instrument. Speculators are particularly common in the markets for stocks, bonds, commodity futures, currencies, fine art, (…)”
[17:48:52] <^411> “collectibles, real estate, and derivatives. Speculators play one of four primary roles in financial markets, along with hedgers, who engage in transactions to offset some other pre-existing risk, arbitrageurs who seek to profit from situations where fungible instruments trade at different prices in different market segments, and investors who seek profit through long-term ownership of an instrument’s underlying (…)”
[17:48:54] <^411> — from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Speculation
[17:49:44] <lakitu> “underlying…”
[17:50:11] <lakitu> (“underlying”…)
[17:50:48] <lakitu> “and investors who seek profit through long-term ownership of an instrument’s underlying attributes.”
[17:57:42] <lakitu> .wiki-5 investment
[17:57:46] <^411> “To invest is to allocate money in the expectation of some benefit/return in the future. In other words, to invest means owning an asset or an item with the goal of generating income from the investment or the appreciation of your investment which is an increase in the value of the asset over a period of time. When you invest it always requires a sacrifice of some present asset that you own today such as time, (…)”
[17:57:52] <^411> “money, or effort. In finance, the benefit from an investing is when you receive a return on your investment. The return may consist of a gain or a loss realized from the sale of a property or an investment, unrealized capital appreciation (or depreciation), or investment income such as dividends, interest, rental income etc., or a combination of capital gain and income. The return may also include currency (…)”
[17:57:58] <^411> “gains or losses due to changes in the foreign currency exchange rates. Investors generally expect higher returns from riskier investments. When a low-risk investment is made, the return is also generally low. Similarly, high risk comes with high returns. Investors, particularly novices, are often advised to adopt a particular investment strategy and diversify their portfolio. Diversification has the statistical (…)”
[17:58:04] <^411> “effect of reducing overall risk. An investor may bear a risk of loss of some or all of their capital invested. Investment differs from arbitrage, in which profit is generated without investing capital or bearing risk. Savings bear the (normally remote) risk that the financial provider may default. Foreign currency savings also bear foreign exchange risk: if the currency of a savings account differs from the (…)”
[17:58:10] <^411> “account holder’s home currency, then there is the risk that the exchange rate between the two currencies will move unfavourably so that the value of the savings account decreases, measured in the account holder’s home currency. Even investing in tangible assets like property has it’s risk. And just like with most risk, property buyers can seek to mitigate any potential risk by taking out mortgage insurance and (…)”
[17:58:16] <^411> — from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Investment
[18:05:23] <lakitu> .wiki-5 investment #investment strategies
[18:05:28] <^411> “Investment strategies[edit] Value investment[edit] Main article: Value investing A value investor buys assets that they believe to be undervalued (and sells overvalued ones). To identify undervalued securities, a value investor uses analysis of the financial reports of the issuer to evaluate the security. Value investors employ accounting ratios, such as earnings per share and sales growth, to identify (…)”
[18:05:33] <^411> “securities trading at prices below their worth. Warren Buffett and Benjamin Graham are notable examples of value investors. Graham and Dodd’s seminal work, Security Analysis, was written in the wake of the Wall Street Crash of 1929.[17] The price to earnings ratio (P/E), or earnings multiple, is a particularly significant and recognized fundamental ratio, with a function of dividing the share price of (…)”
[18:05:40] <^411> “the stock, by its earnings per share. This will provide the value representing the sum investors are prepared to expend for each dollar of company earnings. This ratio is an important aspect, due to its capacity as measurement for the comparison of valuations of various companies. A stock with a lower P/E ratio will cost less per share than one with a higher P/E, taking into account the same level of financial (…)”
[18:05:46] <^411> “performance; therefore, it essentially means a low P/E is the preferred option.[18] An instance in which the price to earnings ratio has a lesser significance is when companies in different industries are compared. For example, although it is reasonable for a telecommunications stock to show a P/E in the low teens, in the case of hi-tech stock, a P/E in the 40s range is not unusual. When making (…)”
[18:05:52] <^411> “comparisons, the P/E ratio can give you a refined view of a particular stock valuation. For investors paying for each dollar of a company’s earnings, the P/E ratio is a significant indicator, but the price-to-book ratio (P/B) is also a reliable indication of how much investors are willing to spend on each dollar of company assets. In the process of the P/B ratio, the share price of a stock is divided by its net (…)”
[18:05:54] <^411> — from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Investment#Investment_strategies
[18:51:54] <kblom> .ety zigzag
[18:51:55] <^411> Can’t find the etymology for “zigzag”. Try https://www.etymonline.com/classic/search?q=zigzag
[18:52:31] <kblom> .ety zig
[18:52:34] <^411> “1969, from zig-zag.”
[18:52:36] <^411> — from https://www.etymonline.com/word/zig
[18:53:30] <lakitu> hey kblom
[18:53:48] <kblom> peopl said zig-zag in the 50s, I remember
[18:53:58] <lakitu> try with the hyphen
[18:54:27] <lakitu> or I can:
[18:54:30] <lakitu> .ety zig-zag
[18:54:34] <^411> “also zigzag, 1712, from French zigzag (1670s), perhaps from German Zickzack (though this is attested only from 1703), possibly a reduplication of Zacke ‘tooth, prong.’ Earliest use in German is in reference to military siege approaches. Originally in English used to describe the layout of certain garden paths. As an adjective from 1750; the verb is recorded from 1774. The brand of cigarette paper is (…)
[18:54:36] <^411> from 1909. Related: Zig-zagged; zig-zagging.”
[18:54:38] <^411> — from https://www.etymonline.com/word/zig-zag
[18:55:22] <lakitu> for those investment strategies, P/E ratio’s page says: “As an example, if share A is trading at $24 and the earnings per share for the most recent 12-month period is $3, then share A has a P/E ratio of $24/($3 per year) = 8. Put another way, the purchaser of the share is investing $8 for every dollar of annual earnings; or, if earnings stayed constant it would take 8 years to recoup the share price. Companies with losses (negative earnings) or
[18:55:22] <lakitu> no profit have an undefined P/E ratio (usually shown as “not applicable” or “N/A”); sometimes, however, a negative P/E ratio may be shown.”
[18:57:50] <lakitu> I did a full work-up for the costs & gains of a business for a business idea I had, & it was very important when the break-even period was – that’s related to that, in the above paste
[18:58:59] <lakitu> when your investments are recouped by your gains
[19:00:01] <lakitu> my idea for a business broke even in 1.13 weeks, I think.
[19:00:11] <lakitu> It’s a pretty lucrative business idea.
[19:05:33] <lakitu> “Investors famous for their success include Warren Buffett. In the March 2013 edition of Forbes magazine, Warren Buffett ranked number 2 in their Forbes 400 list.[19] Buffett has advised in numerous articles and interviews that a good investment strategy is long-term and due diligence is the key to investing in the right assets.”
[19:06:49] <lakitu> (“Edward O. Thorp was a highly successful hedge fund manager in the 1970s and 1980s who spoke of a similar approach.[20].”)
[19:09:23] <lakitu> .wiki Kelly strategy
[19:09:29] <^411> “In probability theory and intertemporal portfolio choice, the Kelly criterion (or Kelly strategy or Kelly bet), also known as the scientific gambling method, is a formula for bet sizing that leads almost surely to higher wealth compared to any other strategy in the long run (i.e. approaching the limit as the number of bets goes to infinity). The Kelly bet size is found by maximizing the expected value of the (…)”
[19:09:35] <^411> “logarithm of wealth, which is equivalent to maximizing the expected geometric growth rate. The Kelly criterion is to bet a predetermined fraction of assets, and it can seem counterintuitive. It was described by J. L. Kelly Jr, a researcher at Bell Labs, in 1956.[1] For an even money bet, the Kelly criterion computes the wager size percentage by multiplying the percent chance to win by two, then (…)”
[19:09:41] <^411> “subtracting one-hundred percent. So, for a bet with a 70% chance to win the optimal wager size is 40% of available funds. The practical use of the formula has been demonstrated for gambling[2][3] and the same idea was used to explain diversification in investment management.[4] In the 2000s, Kelly-style analysis became a part of mainstream investment theory[5] and the claim has (…)”
[19:09:43] <^411> — from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion
[19:18:12] <lakitu> this Kelly bet is really intriguiing – an optimal betting strategy for many investment situations – using “maff” as friida might call it
[19:18:16] <lakitu> “maph”
[19:18:19] <lakitu> very cool
[19:18:30] <lakitu> I’ve kind of got the hang of the calculation
[19:18:38] <lakitu> .wiki Kelly strategy#Statement
[19:18:40] <^411> Not found: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion#Statement
[19:18:41] <^411> Not found: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WikiLeaks#Statement
[19:19:06] <lakitu> wikileaks?
[19:19:10] <lakitu> hmm, some error
[19:19:19] <lakitu> .wiki Kelly criterion#Statement
[19:19:23] <^411> “Statement[edit] For simple bets with two outcomes, one involving losing the entire amount bet, and the other involving winning the bet amount multiplied by the payoff odds, the Kelly bet is: f ∗ = p − q b = b p − q b = b p − ( 1 − p ) b = p ( b + 1 ) − 1 b {\displaystyle f^{}=p-{\frac {q}{b}}={\frac (…)” [19:19:29] <^411> “{bp-q}{b}}={\frac {bp-(1-p)}{b}}={\frac {p(b+1)-1}{b}}} where: f ∗ {\displaystyle f^{}} is the fraction of the current bankroll to wager; (i.e. how much to bet, expressed in fraction) b {\displaystyle b} is the net fractional odds received on the wager; (e.g. betting $10, on win, rewards $4 plus wager; then b = 0.4 {\displaystyle b=0.4} ) p {\displaystyle p} is the probability of a win; q = 1 (…)”
[19:19:34] <^411> “− p {\displaystyle q=1-p} is the probability of a loss. As an example, if a gamble has a 60% chance of winning ( p = 0.60 {\displaystyle p=0.60} , q = 0.40 {\displaystyle q=0.40} ), and the gambler receives 1-to-1 odds on a winning bet ( b = 1 {\displaystyle b=1} ), then the gambler should bet 20% of the bankroll at each opportunity ( f ∗ = 0.20 {\displaystyle f^{}=0.20} ), in (…)” [19:19:36] <^411> — from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion#Statement [19:19:56] <lakitu> a bunch scribble it must look like – click the link if you’re curious [19:20:49] <lakitu> a bunch of scribble
[19:20:53] <lakitu> I was saying
[19:43:20] *** Joins: mazy^grace ([email protected])
[19:43:25] <lakitu> welcome mazy!
[19:43:26] <mazy^grace> hiya
[19:43:34] <mazy^grace> tanks lakitu
[19:43:45] <lakitu> just discussing this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion
[19:43:46] <^411> “In probability theory and intertemporal portfolio choice, the Kelly criterion (or Kelly strategy or Kelly bet), also known as the scientific gambling method, is a formula for bet sizing that leads almost surely to higher wealth compared to any other strategy in the long run (i.e. approaching the limit as the number of bets goes to infinity). The Kelly bet size is found by maximizing the expected value of the (…)”
[19:43:49] <^411> — from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion
[19:44:02] <mazy^grace> how’s ebby body tonight?
[19:44:12] <lakitu> am a little under the weather myself
[19:44:19] <mazy^grace> :(
[19:44:22] <lakitu> how are you doing?!
[19:44:30] <mazy^grace> I’m doing great
[19:44:31] <lakitu> feeling better yet?
[19:44:32] <lakitu> great
[19:44:35] <mazy^grace> thank you for asking
[19:44:40] <lakitu> yup
[19:45:07] <mazy^grace> what’s going on?
[19:45:36] <lakitu> not much – just discussing that betting strategy – it’s like an optimal general betting strategy
[19:45:39] <lakitu> very intriguing
[19:46:02] <lakitu> I was just coding some betting experiments to learn it better
[19:46:12] <lakitu> takes a bit to get the hang of
[19:46:29] <lakitu> am still understanding the betting formula
[19:46:37] * mazy^grace doesn’t know anything about betting strategy
[19:46:42] <lakitu> –came upon it for investments
[19:46:52] <lakitu> well I was looking up investments – how best to invest, etc
[19:47:09] <lakitu> you’re certainly free to talk about anything you want in #here, tho, mazy
[19:47:17] <mazy^grace> ok
[19:47:41] <lakitu> I just coded the betting function – going to run 1000 random trials & see if it wins
[19:47:56] <lakitu> but I will certainly break away from that to chat
[19:47:59] <mazy^grace> I’m watching Antiques Roadshow, I invest in antiques
[19:48:00] <mazy^grace> :)
[19:48:04] <lakitu> heh
[19:48:07] <lakitu> that’s fun to watch
[19:48:25] <mazy^grace> so true
[19:48:26] <lakitu> it’s kind of part history, too
[19:48:51] <mazy^grace> fer sure
[19:49:10] <lakitu> my own Dad is a collector/merchant
[19:49:21] <lakitu> on the side.
[19:49:23] <mazy^grace> awesome
[19:49:30] <lakitu> he is an electrician by trade
[19:49:50] <lakitu> like his Dad & his Dad’s Dad
[19:51:21] <lakitu> what do you collect?
[19:51:31] <lakitu> my Dad has one of everything, lol
[19:51:36] <mazy^grace> all kinds of things
[19:51:43] <lakitu> any memorable sales?
[19:52:00] <mazy^grace> Costume Jewelry, glassware, etc
[19:52:05] <lakitu> ohh fun
[19:52:13] <mazy^grace> not really…… I keep ebby thang
[19:52:15] <mazy^grace> hahahhahhahah
[19:52:18] <lakitu> we had a costume shop around here, visited a lot as a teen & early 20-something
[19:52:19] <lakitu> haha
[19:52:24] <lakitu> funny.
[19:52:38] <mazy^grace> I have two Beanie Babies that I’ve been wanting to sell
[19:52:44] <mazy^grace> they are very rare
[19:52:52] <lakitu> oh yeah?
[19:52:54] <lakitu> I remember those =D
[19:53:15] <lakitu> –I was about to say, they had really just preposterous outfits
[19:53:22] <mazy^grace> my daughter actually gave them to me to sell, but I want to get her a good price
[19:53:32] <lakitu> mm
[19:54:19] <lakitu> there’d be a cigarette holder for you mouth, a metal bangle with Cyrillic lettering for a design, & just every outrageous article of clothing you can think of we’d pick & choose ’90s-kid wear from ^_^
[19:54:21] <lakitu> it was very fun
[19:54:26] <lakitu> just 10 minutes away from where I lived
[19:54:27] <mazy^grace> she had the Princess that I bought her in Victoria years ago, before they came to the US
[19:54:37] <lakitu> I’d take girls there for accessory shopping.
[19:54:50] <lakitu> too bad we don’t have pictures on IRC.
[19:54:58] <mazy^grace> lol
[19:55:05] <lakitu> haha
[19:55:24] <lakitu> for your mouth*
[19:55:37] <mazy^grace> the Princess Di sells for 4-6,000
[19:55:42] <lakitu> oh
[19:55:43] <lakitu> wow
[19:55:47] <lakitu> sell high!
[19:55:47] <mazy^grace> it’s first edition
[19:55:52] <mazy^grace> has all the stuff
[19:55:53] <lakitu> buy low, sell high =P
[19:56:00] <lakitu> (was from our investment reading today)
[19:56:01] <mazy^grace> in mint condition
[19:56:13] <mazy^grace> but selling on the internet is sketchy
[19:56:38] <lakitu> mm. Ebay someone was telling me is kind of waning – at least for a while
[19:56:55] <lakitu> harder to sell on
[19:56:57] <mazy^grace> and the other bear she has is the Mellenium Bear
[19:57:03] <lakitu> cute.
[19:57:19] <mazy^grace> again….. first edition…perfect tags, correct ribbon
[19:57:30] <mazy^grace> Milllenium Bear
[19:58:05] <mazy^grace> I’ve just been researching for her
[19:58:17] <lakitu> how old is your daughter?
[19:58:28] <lakitu> don’t you have a son, too?
[19:58:38] <mazy^grace> yes……. I have a son
[19:58:46] <mazy^grace> my daughter has moved on
[19:58:46] <lakitu> you don’t have to say your daughter’s age on IRC
[19:59:05] <lakitu> she was living with you, right?
[19:59:09] <mazy^grace> no
[19:59:12] <lakitu> or your son?
[19:59:19] <mazy^grace> my son was living with me
[19:59:20] <lakitu> your son.
[19:59:22] <lakitu> ok – right
[19:59:32] <mazy^grace> he’s still around
[19:59:32] <lakitu> I was thinking that, then– anyway
[19:59:41] <lakitu> ok
[19:59:54] <lakitu> wonderful you have kids
[19:59:59] <lakitu> little mazy^graces
[20:00:16] <lakitu> any bragging you’d like to do of either/both?
[20:00:28] <lakitu> always good for a Mom to brag up her children, I think ;)
[20:00:42] <lakitu> –not to put you on the spot.
[20:01:16] <lakitu> thank you so much – we need more women on here – a downfall of IRC
[20:01:25] <mazy^grace> not really…….. my son lives with a gal that can’t have children
[20:01:35] <lakitu> oh yeah?
[20:01:39] <mazy^grace> so no grandkids
[20:01:43] <lakitu> oh no
[20:01:52] <mazy^grace> she’s epileptic
[20:02:01] <lakitu> not your favorite traits
[20:02:54] <lakitu> not to get too into negative stuff
[20:03:00] <mazy^grace> ya
[20:03:04] <lakitu> hm
[20:03:09] <lakitu> this investment strategy is neat
[20:03:24] <lakitu> gonna experiment & do my best to commit it to memory
[20:03:24] <mazy^grace> does your dad make lots of money on his collections
[20:03:25] <lakitu> use it
[20:03:28] <lakitu> no
[20:03:29] <lakitu> not lots
[20:03:35] <lakitu> he needs to invest MORE money
[20:03:52] <lakitu> he isn’t buying big enough stuff to get big enough gains
[20:04:00] <lakitu> but it’s what he likes, he uses the stuff he buys
[20:04:30] <lakitu> he has, like, 1,000 power tools / pieces of equipment
[20:04:38] <mazy^grace> lol
[20:04:43] <lakitu> I don’t know how many =D
[20:04:46] <lakitu> a lot
[20:05:01] <lakitu> he’s always rebuilding something, or renovating
[20:05:13] <mazy^grace> da wookie loved to garage sale with me and he was ALWAYS buying power tools etc
[20:05:18] <lakitu> haha
[20:05:29] <mazy^grace> I would tell him he already had TWO of whatever
[20:05:33] * lakitu watches out for the …glue gun
[20:05:35] <mazy^grace> he still bought it
[20:05:41] <lakitu> “it’s a good deal!!”
[20:05:44] <lakitu> I can just hear it now
[20:05:46] <mazy^grace> ya
[20:06:06] <mazy^grace> he didn’t have a clue how much he already had, but I’d put them away and I knew
[20:06:37] <lakitu> – I inherited great fortitude from each of my Mom & Dad – my Mom is a never-stopper – incredible fortitude – my Dad more has ‘industry’ – he works 18 hours at a time when he’s doing something he wants to do
[20:06:39] <lakitu> which is quite often
[20:06:47] <lakitu> mm.
[20:07:00] <mazy^grace> :)
[20:07:29] <lakitu> after having my health-problem setbacks, I’m maxxed out for how much work I am willing to do
[20:07:38] <lakitu> – my diligence
[20:07:52] <lakitu> .ety diligence
[20:07:56] <^411> “mid-14c., ‘constant and earnest effort to accomplish what is undertaken,’ from Old French diligence ‘attention, care; haste, speed’ and directly from Latin diligentia ‘attentiveness, carefulness,’ from diligentem (nominative diligens) ‘attentive, assiduous, careful,’ present-participle adjective from diligere ‘single out, value highly, esteem, prize, love; aspire to, be content with, appreciate,’ (…)
[20:08:02] <^411> originally ‘to pick out, select,’ from dis- ‘apart’ (see dis-) + legere ‘choose, gather,’ from PIE root leg- (1) ‘to collect, gather,’ with derivatives meaning ‘to speak (to ‘pick out words’).’Sense evolved through time from ‘love’ through ‘attentiveness’ to ‘carefulness’ to ‘steady effort.’ Legal sense ‘attention and care due from a person in a given situation’ is from 1620s. From the secondary French (…) [20:08:04] <^411> sense comes the old useage of diligence for ‘public stage coach’ (1742; dilly for short), from a French shortening of carrosse de diligence.” [20:08:06] <^411> — from https://www.etymonline.com/word/diligence [20:09:25] <lakitu> & that’s what it comes from: “(…); value highly, esteem, prize, love; (…); appreciate” – that’s where most or all diligence comes from, [20:09:35] <lakitu> organic diligence. [20:09:49] <lakitu> to love, to prize, to like [20:10:03] <lakitu> something so much that you do it fully: with due diligence [20:10:11] <lakitu> a labor of love. [20:10:28] <lakitu> (a labor of Love.) [20:10:59] <lakitu> that’s where most or all diligence comes from.
[20:11:30] <lakitu> I’ve heard of a lot of people having blurry vision lately.
[20:11:40] <lakitu> & now insomnia.
[20:12:27] <mazy^grace> what do you attribute that to?
[20:12:32] <lakitu> heh
[20:12:50] <lakitu> well, that’s harder to armchair research.
[20:13:29] <lakitu> but it can help to know e.g. IrishKing has some throat affliction that I have, etc
[20:13:45] <lakitu> that maybe it’s going around – meaning it’s an infection or something
[20:13:57] <lakitu> have you seen IrishKing lately?
[20:14:05] * lakitu just was wondering
[20:14:30] <mazy^grace> yes, I’m in his channel at the moment, but nobody is talking
[20:14:59] *** lakitu sets mode: +vv MagnusRM3 mazy^grace
[20:15:44] <lakitu> did Deanr ever make his channel?
[20:15:54] <lakitu> last I heard, he was making his own, too
[20:16:13] <mazy^grace> not to my knowledge
[20:16:16] <lakitu> ok
[20:16:20] <lakitu> both asked for 411
[20:16:43] <lakitu> that was like early to mid 2020 tho.
[20:17:32] <lakitu> (((* early- to mid- 2020)))
[20:18:09] <lakitu> I guess it was fine =P
[20:18:45] <lakitu> well I reworked my site, want to look? – can if you want:
[20:18:49] <lakitu> https://joevalentyn.org
[20:18:53] <lakitu> no big deal if not
[20:19:03] <^411> — “Joe Valentyn”
[20:19:10] <lakitu> thank you 411 =P
[20:19:57] <mazy^grace> bbl
[20:20:00] <lakitu> ok!
[20:21:46] <lakitu> back to the Kelly (investment) strategy:
[20:21:52] <lakitu> .wiki kelly strategy
[20:21:58] <^411> “In probability theory and intertemporal portfolio choice, the Kelly criterion (or Kelly strategy or Kelly bet), also known as the scientific gambling method, is a formula for bet sizing that leads almost surely to higher wealth compared to any other strategy in the long run (i.e. approaching the limit as the number of bets goes to infinity). The Kelly bet size is found by maximizing the expected value of the (…)”
[20:22:04] <^411> “logarithm of wealth, which is equivalent to maximizing the expected geometric growth rate. The Kelly criterion is to bet a predetermined fraction of assets, and it can seem counterintuitive. It was described by J. L. Kelly Jr, a researcher at Bell Labs, in 1956.[1] For an even money bet, the Kelly criterion computes the wager size percentage by multiplying the percent chance to win by two, then (…)”
[20:22:10] <^411> “subtracting one-hundred percent. So, for a bet with a 70% chance to win the optimal wager size is 40% of available funds. The practical use of the formula has been demonstrated for gambling[2][3] and the same idea was used to explain diversification in investment management.[4] In the 2000s, Kelly-style analysis became a part of mainstream investment theory[5] and the claim has (…)”
[20:22:14] <^411> — from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion
[20:40:55] * lakitu coding random-outcome simulated bets to see this investment strategy in action!
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[21:08:38] <kblom> when I first moved to texas in 1962
[21:12:03] <kblom> I was encouraged to build a model of the alamo and I did
[21:12:31] <lakitu> I just completed the first prototype of this kelly bet strategy, going to run it now
[21:15:14] <kblom> I got a grade A for my Alamo
[21:16:37] <lakitu> sweet
[21:17:48] <kblom> in texas history class grade 7
[21:18:39] <lakitu> tell me about Lawrence if you can – is that where much of your family lived/lives around?
[21:18:59] <lakitu> cousins & uncles & aunts & nephews & nieces & so on?
[21:21:38] <lakitu> i got it.
[21:22:00] <lakitu> now I can try different likelihoods of winning & winnings configurations to test it
[21:22:39] <lakitu> we’re from southern Minnesota / Minnesota area – Faribault, as best I can tell
[21:22:54] <lakitu> altho we have family in St. Paul & the metro area, & also a little bit south of Faribault.
[21:23:15] <lakitu> if you want to say – it’s IRC, so.
[21:23:36] <lakitu> but I wouldn’t mind hearing.
[21:24:13] <ControlFreq> Hello Dollface!
[21:24:19] <lakitu> look who showed up!
[21:24:28] <lakitu> I got Mazy.
[21:27:01] <lakitu> ever heard of the Kelly strategy for investments, Freq?
[21:27:25] <ControlFreq> My financial strategy is to spend money until I’m broke
[21:28:39] * lakitu does not hire you for commenda
[21:29:02] <lakitu> but this is for ALL KINDS of investment– not just money
[21:29:08] <lakitu> effort
[21:29:10] <lakitu> even
[21:29:17] <lakitu> – we invest many things.
[21:31:35] * lakitu half doing this investment research thing
[21:35:26] <lakitu> this is pretty cool to find
[21:35:33] <lakitu> an optimal growth betting strategy
[21:36:24] * lakitu grimaces bearing the great crunching of understanding the strategy =P
[21:39:49] <lakitu> .wiki risk premium
[21:39:53] <^411> “For an individual, a risk premium is the minimum amount of money by which the expected return on a risky asset (such as stock)[1] must exceed the known return on a risk-free asset (such as a Treasury bond)[2] in order to induce an individual to hold the risky asset rather than the risk-free asset. It is positive if the person is risk averse. Thus it is the minimum willingness to accept (…)”
[21:39:59] <^411> “compensation for the risk. The certainty equivalent, a related concept, is the guaranteed amount of money that an individual would view as equally desirable as a risky asset.[3] For market outcomes, a risk premium is the actual excess of the expected return on a risky asset over the known return on the risk-free asset. Let an individual’s increasing, concave von Neumann-Morgenstern utility function (…)”
[21:40:04] <^411> “[4] be u, let rf be the return on the risk-free asset, and let r be the random return on the risky asset. Write r as the sum of its expected return rf + π {\displaystyle \pi } , necessary for indifference between the risky and risk-free assets, and its zero-mean risky component x. Then the risk premium π {\displaystyle \pi } is defined by Here the left side is the (…)”
[21:40:06] <^411> — from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Risk_premium
[21:47:46] <lakitu> remember that I was using the household sense/root of “economy” a couple days ago:
[21:47:49] <lakitu> .ety economy
[21:47:52] <^411> “1530s, ‘household management,’ from Latin oeconomia (source of French économie, Spanish economia, German Ökonomie, etc.), from Greek oikonomia ‘household management, thrift,’ from oikonomos ‘manager, steward,’ from oikos ‘house, abode, dwelling’ (cognate with Latin vicus ‘district,’ vicinus ‘near;’ Old English wic ‘dwelling, village,’ from PIE root *weik- (1) ‘clan’) + nomos ‘managing,’ from nemein (…)
[21:47:55] <^411> ‘manage’ (from PIE root *nem- ‘assign, allot; take’). Meaning ‘frugality, judicious use of resources’ is from 1660s. The sense of ‘wealth and resources of a country’ (short for political economy) is from 1650s.”
[21:47:57] <^411> — from https://www.etymonline.com/word/economy
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[22:04:26] <lakitu> a couple days ago habits were discussed
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[22:20:06] <lakitu> well I love this Kelly optimal growth investment strategy so far.
[22:21:11] <lakitu> I love discovering a real mathematical solution to optimal investment strategies that have risk & reward . . .
[22:21:53] <lakitu> I love discovering a real mathematical solution to optimal growth strategies for investments that have risk & reward . . .
[22:21:56] <lakitu> *
[22:22:11] <lakitu> that’s quite the thing.
[22:22:32] <lakitu> I’m running the simulation, so far it’s winning. even when it dips it battles back
[22:23:35] <lakitu> current sim has it started at $1000 / 1000 units of investment: effort – whatever – & it is up to $21,622.97.
[22:29:03] <lakitu> “The Kelly Formula: Growth-Optimized Money Management Not for the Faint of Heart
[22:29:03] <lakitu> Feb. 04, 2011 2:41 AM ETPetMed Express, Inc. (PETS)8 Comments
[22:29:03] <lakitu> A law of the theory of betting is that the optimal procedure is to bet proportionally to one’s advantage, adjusted by variance. This is the well-known “Kelly Formula” (aka ‘Kelly Criterion’), discovered by John Kelly in the 1950’s. It results in the maximum expected rate of bankroll growth, and is mathematically the optimal strategy for money management in betting games.
[22:29:05] <lakitu> The Kelly Formula was popularized by Ed Thorp in his 1962 book “Beat the Dealer” This book inspired millions of gamblers and stock investors alike. The concept is simple – when the odds are good, you bet a higher percentage of your bankroll. All great investors use this formula, either implicitly or explicitly. When Warren Buffett managed much smaller sums of money back in the ‘60’s, he is known to have placed up to 40% of the portfolio
[22:29:12] <lakitu> in a single stock.
[22:29:14] <lakitu> The Kelly Formula is: Kelly % = W – (1-W)/R where:
[22:29:16] <lakitu> Kelly % = percentage of capital to be put into a single trade.
[22:29:18] <lakitu> W = Historical winning percentage of a trading system.
[22:29:22] <lakitu> R = Historical Average Win/Loss ratio.
[22:29:24] <lakitu> So why doesn’t every money manager follow this simple formula? It’s because betting the standard Kelly % entails wild swings, which are not for the faint of heart. Betting the straight Kelly % results in a 1/3 chance of halving a portfolio before it doubles. Many investors will not hold on to a stock during such extreme drawdowns. A more risk-averse strategy used by some is”
[22:29:29] <lakitu> Sweet.
[22:30:26] <lakitu> This rules.
[22:30:53] <lakitu> This is pretty hep.
[22:32:17] <lakitu> – & is exactly what I was looking for.
[22:32:24] <lakitu> ((in part, at least.))
[22:47:14] <lakitu> that makes pretty good sense now that I look at
[22:47:15] <lakitu> it
[22:47:21] <lakitu> that makes pretty good sense now that I look at it.
[22:47:39] <lakitu> the amount that it does, at least
[22:59:13] <lakitu> that’s really interesting.
[23:21:17] <lakitu> “The Kelly Criterion was created by John Kelly, a researcher at Bell Labs, who originally developed the formula to analyze long-distance telephone signal noise.”
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[23:31:27] <lakitu> re risk management: “Stop-loss (S/L) and take-profit (T/P) points represent two key ways in which traders can plan ahead when trading. Successful traders know what price they are willing to pay and at what price they are willing to sell. They can then measure the resulting returns against the probability of the stock hitting their goals. If the adjusted return is high enough, they execute the trade.”
[23:32:45] <lakitu> I like reading things metaphorically – I’m not researching how to invest money, but I’m reading investopedia to learn from who SHOULD KNOW – who I SHOULD ASK – when to learn about investments of any kind: effort, etc. etc. etc..
[23:33:28] <lakitu> when learning about investments of all kinds: effort, etc. etc. etc.
[23:33:29] <lakitu> mistype
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[01:15:38] <inhahe> seems like something there’s no real algorithm for
[01:15:54] <inhahe> just play it by ear on a case by case basis, follow your passions, etc.
[01:16:00] <inhahe> ihk
[01:16:01] <inhahe> idk
[01:16:58] <inhahe> maybe make a list of pros and cons to help organize/remember them all
[01:17:19] <inhahe> pros and cons for whatever endeavor you’re considering
[01:18:09] <inhahe> you could make it mathematical and give each pro and con a number and then add them up
[01:18:21] <inhahe> that seems kind of hackneyed though
[01:18:52] <inhahe> er wrong word
[01:19:01] <inhahe> kind of overly systematic
[01:19:12] <inhahe> possibly misleading
[01:19:16] <lakitu> that was a good-enough word – i got it
[01:20:01] <inhahe> (i mean giving them each a number and adding them up is overly systematic, not necessarily making the list otherwise)
[01:20:04] <lakitu> no, I’m working with this Kelly criterion, & it’s pretty incredible: it really is a mathematical equation for risk-taking where chance (of winning) & winnings (compared to bet) are known
[01:21:06] <lakitu> I really think there is a whole future in that stuff, inhahe, figuring out algorithms & values for e.g. personal-life things
[01:21:13] <inhahe> just multiply chance of gains by amount of gains, multiply chance of loss by amount of loss, and compare ;d
[01:22:46] <inhahe> (though it’s not that simple when the stakes are high enough that they could make you or break you, as opposed to averaging out over many such investments)
[01:24:40] <lakitu> – I told you guys in #philosophical that I did a big look-at with personal facets/fronts ‘squared’ – the personal facets like Love Life, Family Life, Social Life, Body, Heart, Mind, Soul, Pet, Home, Career, Wardrobe, etc, & took that list & made a matrix of it times itself, & then looked at how helpful doing well in each one was for the other. I found, after comparing about 169 combinations of personal-life facets, that *knowledge* & money
[01:24:40] <lakitu> were the two most generally helpful things in life– using such a value system as you sort of sketched & I was saying here.
[01:26:08] <lakitu> I did look at that: at multiplying chance (of winning) by possible gains (per cost of investment) – it varied from this Kelly strategy I think too much
[01:26:43] <lakitu> altho the proportionality was right – obviously since bigger gains & greater chances of winning both meant you should invest more of your wealth
[01:26:50] <inhahe> social prowess and making connections gets you high-paying jobs, so you’d think that’s important
[01:26:58] <lakitu> that is good too
[01:27:05] <lakitu> I encourage you to make your own & evaluate it for yourself
[01:27:17] <lakitu> money can buy books, house, clothes…
[01:27:29] <lakitu> (in no great order, there ;)
[01:27:35] <lakitu> * (in no great order, there ;))
[01:27:55] <lakitu> I picked the top 2 to tell people
[01:28:05] <inhahe> so knowledge makes money and money makes knowledge – that’s why the two stood out in your matrix multiplication/
[01:28:05] <inhahe> ?
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[01:28:38] <inhahe> (books are cheap, though)
[01:28:39] <lakitu> knowledge leading to money is a big thing, as much as money truly is a big/important factor in personal life
[01:28:43] <inhahe> well, college isn’t
[01:28:44] <lakitu> true –
[01:28:46] <lakitu> right
[01:28:50] <lakitu> that’s what I was about to say
[01:29:03] <lakitu> & I am not particularly attributing much knowledge to having money
[01:29:15] <lakitu> but you can also pay advisors, or e.g., high-profile lawyers
[01:29:20] <lakitu> that sort of thing
[01:29:40] <lakitu> you see that knowledge is worth its while there, too
[01:29:44] <lakitu> the knowledge of lawyers
[01:29:54] <lakitu> lawyers’ knowledge haha
[01:31:52] <lakitu> one defense mechanism this Kelly strategy for investing has is it calculates the PERCENT OF YOUR WEALTH (or whatever you’re investing: effort) per investment; that means, if you invest 50% of $100,000, & lose, then that same bet would use 50% the next time, so it would only bet $25,000 the next time
[01:32:05] <lakitu> I’m running simulations of its investment strategy & it battles back, even if it dips for a bit
[01:32:47] <lakitu> I just plotted the equation in 3 dimensions, using GNU Octave;
[01:33:12] <lakitu> the Kelly criterion for investing/betting looks like a huge erection, hahaha.
[01:33:41] <inhahe> fitting
[01:33:42] <lakitu> the Kelly strategy…
[01:33:44] <lakitu> yeah
[01:33:48] <lakitu> that’s waht i thought
[01:33:51] <lakitu> that’s what I thought
[01:34:14] <lakitu> since it can involve big bets/investments like that article was saying
[01:34:48] <lakitu> it calculates that you should invest large parts of your wealth (or whatever) for surprising investments
[01:35:04] <lakitu> I’m trying to learn the ‘lay of the land’ of it
[01:35:14] <lakitu> so I can get a feel for how much to invest when
[01:35:19] <lakitu> it’s very much what I was looking for tho
[01:35:28] <lakitu> it’s crazy to get this in a mathematical formula
[02:36:25] <lakitu> -there’s Kelly calculators on the web to experiment & get a feel for its recommended amount to invest per investment where you have enough confidence in knowing the chance of winning & what the payoff for a bet is, like https://www.albionresearch.com/tools/kelly
[02:36:29] <^411> — “A Kelly Strategy Calculator”
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[08:02:27] <lakitu> ‘morning #forum, I am here
[08:02:35] <lakitu> – I am #here.
[08:03:13] * lakitu sips his plant juice.
[08:03:40] <lakitu> (I think I am a believer in this double-celery recipe!)
[08:05:00] <lakitu> also, my juice-preserving method is working – day three. juices normally go bad after about 48 hours
[08:07:14] <lakitu> https://joevalentyn.org/press/2017/10/22/juicing-ideas-for-you/
[08:07:22] <^411> — “Juicing Ideas For You ⸻ ♡, Joe Valentyn”
[08:18:28] <lakitu> everyone misspells “forgo” =P https://nutritionfacts.org/video/forego-fat-free-dressings/ < ignore the title, interesting discussion of using fat like from an avocado or sour cream or butter to absorb “phytochemicals” – I think the scientistic overly-Enlightenment name we give to what-would-otherwise-be-called (plant) nutrients.
[08:18:30] <^411> — “Forgo Fat-Free Dressings? | NutritionFacts.org”
[08:18:44] <lakitu> ah – he corrected it in the html title =D
[08:19:05] <lakitu> hutmul.
[08:24:22] <lakitu> that guy does a good job (on his site: nutritionfacts.org).
[08:25:15] <lakitu> – he just does a good job.
[08:29:40] <lakitu> …W-(1-W)/R; I have the Kelly criterion/strategy/bet formula memorized.
[08:30:34] <lakitu> W is chance (of winning) & R is (possible winnings / cost to invest).
[08:31:18] <lakitu> e.g if you could win $14 & it costs $10 to invest, 1.4 is possible winnings / cost to invest.
[08:32:31] <lakitu> e.g.*
[08:33:36] <lakitu> that would then equal the fraction of your wealth (Kelly-strategy investments say) you should invest, in that situation.
[08:41:14] <lakitu> Kelly criterion investing “is not for the faint of heart.”
[09:03:18] <lakitu> Kelly was solving an engineering problem, involving telephone systems, where you could have 5,000 packets being bet/invested a second
[09:03:55] <lakitu> so he had to reckon with investment on a very large scale (re number of investments)
[09:04:47] <lakitu> & that was the most-successful strategy he came up with
[09:17:13] <lakitu> “By always making the Kelly bet, you increase your bankroll faster than with any system. That’s the good news. The bad news is that it’s a rough ride. Downward plunges of wealth are frequent and steep. This can be rectified through diversification (as in team play in blackjack, or at a hedge fund, where the manager makes many simultaneous “bets” wi
[09:17:13] <lakitu> th low correlation). For the lone player betting on a single hand or horse, the Kelly formula demands guts and patience — hence the controversy.”
[09:43:00] <lakitu> like I say, it battles back.
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[11:28:48] <lakitu> in one bet’s model, Kelly battled back from $2.35 to $27,274 in 19 rounds.
[11:32:48] <lakitu> ^ inhahe
[11:33:18] <lakitu> friida.
[11:33:22] <lakitu> ControlFreq.
[11:33:27] <lakitu> kblom you’d probably like this too.
[11:33:32] <inhahe> i wonder if you can win at horse races with kelsly
[11:33:33] <inhahe> kelly
[11:33:43] <inhahe> i bet too many people are already doing it
[11:33:44] <lakitu> that was the example in his original paper
[11:34:02] <lakitu> it is very popular among gamblers, also stock market investors.
[11:34:37] <lakitu> he worked closely with Claude Shannon; was apparently a very smart man
[11:35:54] <lakitu> statistics are hands-down something we need to learn more in our daily lives: daily exposed to the odds of things that matter to us happening, not happening
[11:36:37] <lakitu> e.g. getting struck by lightning is about 1 in a 1,000,000 – that is one statistic I use to characterize things that are about as likely
[11:36:49] <lakitu> that is one statistic I know
[11:37:11] <lakitu> My Grandpa was struck by lightning – founded an electric company =D
[11:38:06] <lakitu> https://www.cedarlakeelectric.com/wp-content/uploads/20-years-19951.jpg < my Uncle & him
[11:39:35] <lakitu> but =D
[11:40:51] <lakitu> but statistics would be good to learn more of – how often a coffee maker shorts & starts a fire – how often someone you met years ago finds you thru the Web – many, many, many statistics we could invest better if only we knew the statistics of things that matter to us
[11:42:08] <lakitu> such statistics of things that matter to us
[11:42:11] <lakitu> I mean.
[11:42:27] <lakitu> * I meant.
[11:43:06] <lakitu> we should have like World-Almanac type references of just statistics of occurrences.
[11:43:17] <lakitu> .web Amazon.com World Almanac 2021
[11:43:21] <^411> https://www.amazon.com/World-Almanac-Book-Facts-2021/dp/1510761381
[11:43:55] <lakitu> certainly: adjust for different scenarios, etc – whatever’s most helpful, of course.
[11:45:25] <lakitu> maybe rainy climates have more fires due to water leaks – if it’s a substantial difference & affects enough people to know, express each scenario (rainy climate, non rainy climate) in each scenario, or do tables by rain fall, etc
[11:45:29] <lakitu> rainfall
[11:45:42] <lakitu> just a very random example, but.
[11:45:58] <lakitu> err
[11:46:42] <lakitu> maybe rainy climates have more fires due to water leaks – if it’s a substantial difference & affects enough people to know, express each scenario (rainy climate, non rainy climate), or do tables by rain fall, etc
[11:46:46] <lakitu> *
[11:47:39] <lakitu> sorry – between computers, still on my first cup of coffee– etc.
[11:48:16] <lakitu> (rainfall*)
[11:50:31] <lakitu> …such an average person’s statistical reference is just like the ‘equpping police officers with body cameras’ civic proposal: getting the judging material into the hands of the people who need it *empowers* them – knowledge is power.
[11:51:07] <lakitu> D.I.Y.
[12:13:40] <lakitu> trying to recruit artalien
[12:13:48] <lakitu> he was here once before…
[12:16:43] <lakitu> .ety atlas
[12:16:46] <^411> “1580s, in Greek mythology a member of the older family of Gods, later regarded as a Titan, son of Iapetus and Clymene; in either case supposed to uphold the pillars of heaven (or earth), which according to one version was his punishment for being the war leader of the Titans in the struggle with the Olympian gods. ‘Originally the name of an Arcadian mountain god; the name was transferred to the mountain (…)
[12:16:52] <^411> chain in Western Africa’ [Beekes].The Greek name traditionally is interpreted as ‘The Bearer (of the Heavens),’ from a-, copulative prefix (see a- (3)), + stem of tlenai ‘to bear,’ from PIE root *tele- ‘to lift, support, weigh.’ But Beekes compares Berber adrar ‘mountain’ and finds it plausible that the Greek name is a ‘folk-etymological reshaping’ of this. Mount Atlas, in Mauritania, was important in (…)
[12:16:54] <^411> Greek cosmology as a support of the heavens.”
[12:16:56] <^411> — from https://www.etymonline.com/word/atlas
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[13:38:37] <lakitu> this little strategic formula is a fighter
[13:39:10] <lakitu> I keep handicapping it, & it keeps outperforming my expectations
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[13:42:35] <lakitu> {14:38:37 pm} <lakitu> this little strategic formula is a fighter
[13:42:35] <lakitu> {14:39:10 pm} <lakitu> I keep handicapping it, & it keeps outperforming my expectations
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[14:22:33] <lakitu> welcome back mazy – doing that investment strategy modeling – for investing effort, etc., etc., etc.: not just money
[14:22:41] <lakitu> I just missed Deanr1.
[14:22:46] <lakitu> Deanr.
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[17:51:10] <lakitu> wb mazy^grace
[17:51:33] <mazy^grace> thanks lakitu
[17:53:41] <mazy^grace> bbl
[17:54:00] <lakitu> ok =D
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[20:58:56] <lakitu> getting ready for bed
[20:59:49] <lakitu> coded computer models of Kelly investment strategy all day – again for effort, & all kinds of things – money is one of zillions of thing we invest
[21:00:16] <lakitu> & so it’s important to learn how best to invest.
[21:01:57] <lakitu> the model is basically at a plateau – about two small steps from being something I can then internalize results from
[21:02:33] <lakitu> has already found its way into my philosophy of life – whenever I teach that– abstract investing is just what I was looking for
[21:02:46] <lakitu> – investing effort, etc.
[21:03:15] <lakitu> K = W – (1-W)/R
[21:03:31] <lakitu> it’s a very basic formula.
[21:03:50] <lakitu> like the electricity formulas, etc
[21:08:13] <lakitu> thinkably, this is a crucial idea – the optimal growth strategy when there’s a likelihood & reward
[21:08:51] <lakitu> this could be a tsunami for things downstream from it
[21:09:10] <lakitu> abstractly – like investments in effort, investments in this, investments in that
[21:09:43] <lakitu> it really potentially could be huge, if it is what is advertised
[21:10:00] <lakitu> I feel like to have been born after rather than before its discovery, if so
[21:10:11] <lakitu> if it is what it says it is
[21:11:11] <lakitu> we might internalize how it works, & then derive principles, proverbs, even jokes from it, if so
[21:14:29] <lakitu> .wiki-1 Kelly Criterion
[21:14:31] <^411> “In probability theory and intertemporal portfolio choice, the Kelly criterion (or Kelly strategy or Kelly bet), also known as the scientific gambling method, is a formula for bet sizing that leads almost surely (under the assumption of known expected returns) to higher wealth compared to any other strategy in the long run (i.e. approaching the limit as the number of bets goes to infinity). The Kelly bet size is (…)”
[21:14:33] <^411> — from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion
[22:05:53] <lakitu> .dict risk appetite
[22:05:54] <^411> § noun: 1. The amount of risk that an investor or other entity is willing to accept in pursuit of a return. — from https://en.wiktionary.org/?title=risk%20appetite
[22:08:25] <lakitu> a lot of psychology-coined words are just needless reduplications of existing concepts/elements, like risk-averse is terrible speech for fearful, we might start off by saying
[22:13:08] <lakitu> fearful has so much more historical culture, its almost like an intentinoal SNAFU to try to institute a new term for “fearful”.
[22:13:37] <lakitu> * fearful has so much more historical culture, it’s almost like an intentinoal SNAFU to try to institute a new term for “fearful”.
[22:13:39] <ControlFreq> Fearful and risk-averse are not synonyms.
[22:13:48] <lakitu> they are closer than you might realize
[22:13:50] <ControlFreq> Fearful is a feeling. Risk-averse is a behavior.
[22:14:05] <ControlFreq> That are not apples and oranges, they are apples and Guam
[22:14:27] <lakitu> i would not agree risk-averse is a behavior, nor that feelings & behaviors are unconnected.
[22:14:40] <lakitu> there are plenty more examples.
[22:14:55] <lakitu> aversion is not a feeling?
[22:15:04] <lakitu> being averse to something?
[22:15:08] <ControlFreq> Risk-averse describes a behavior.
[22:15:13] <lakitu> a feeling, an attitude, mental?
[22:15:40] <lakitu> I am no behaviorist. I do not try disconnect the mental from acts
[22:15:53] <lakitu> * I do not try to disconnect the mental from acts
[22:16:25] <inhahe> can’t it be argued that the only reason one would have the behavior of being risk-averse is that they’re fearful
[22:16:30] <lakitu> aversion at the vey least has a mental component
[22:16:36] <lakitu> I would, inhahe
[22:16:48] <lakitu> you fear the object of the expression
[22:17:43] <lakitu> there are healthy fears & unhealthy fears, but fear is not long off from avoiding a risk because of it being that risk
[22:17:55] <lakitu> * aversion at the very least has a mental component
[22:18:23] <lakitu> being averse.
[22:19:00] <lakitu> (being averse at the very least has a mental component.)
[22:20:25] <lakitu> & that is just gifting you a simple 3-point field goal. there are many examples of psychology attempting to culturally appropriate long-established expressions – particularly from philosophy, spirituality, literature – poetry included – & theatre
[22:20:37] <lakitu> politics, too
[22:21:20] <lakitu> they say they brought “science” to humanistic speculation – we had *voting* for thousands of years
[22:21:27] <lakitu> that is not their new discovery
[22:21:56] <lakitu> they have consumed too much methamphetamines of their own manufacturing, laughing
[22:22:26] <lakitu> next they will have discovered The New World.
[22:24:30] <lakitu> that is heinous – to try to culturally appropriate counting opinions?
[22:24:40] <lakitu> attribute it to descendants of Freud?
[22:25:19] <lakitu> “in 1889, Herman McGuile said…”
[22:25:37] <lakitu> laughing that is ridiculous.
[22:28:24] <lakitu> & that is just one example of cultural appropriation they attempt by renaming pillars of society.
[22:30:46] <lakitu> – I used to joke, “the mind was invented around 1850, in Austria.” Hilariously JohnGuru said, “Oo, yes, yes I believe it was” lol. Deconstructionist-like revisionism of plain facts.
[22:32:20] * lakitu will not being ripping on JohnGuru, don’t worry. I’m pretty well at peace with that.
[22:32:32] <lakitu> (that situation, not the funny memory.)
[22:33:15] * lakitu remembers watching the “Derrida” documentary, briefly
[22:33:51] *** Quits: lakitu ([email protected]) (ZNC 1.7.5+deb4 – https://znc.in)
[22:33:54] * will not be ripping on JohnGuru*
[22:38:27] *** Joins: lakitu ([email protected])
[22:38:28] *** kblom sets mode: +o lakitu
[22:38:48] *** Server sets mode: +s
[22:38:56] *** Server sets mode: +s
[22:42:55] <lakitu> [23:25:40] <@lakitu> laughing that is ridiculous.
[22:42:55] <lakitu> [23:28:27] <@lakitu> & that is just one example of cultural appropriation they attempt by renaming pillars of society.
[22:42:55] <lakitu> [23:30:49] <@lakitu> – I used to joke, “the mind was invented around 1850, in Austria.” Hilariously JohnGuru said, “Oo, yes, yes I believe it was” lol. Deconstructionist-like revisionism of plain facts.
[22:42:55] <lakitu> [23:32:23] @lakitu will not being ripping on JohnGuru, don’t worry. I’m pretty well at peace with that.
[22:42:55] <lakitu> [23:32:34] <@lakitu> (that situation, not the funny memory.)
[22:42:55] <lakitu> [23:33:18] @lakitu remembers watching the “Derrida” documentary, briefly
[22:42:55] <lakitu> [23:33:56] @lakitu will not be ripping on JohnGuru*
[22:47:43] <lakitu> – many others.
[22:49:14] <lakitu> .wolfram plot Y = X – (1-X)/Z
[22:49:27] <^411> plot | Y = X – (1 – X)/Z
[22:49:28] <^411> plot | Y = X – (1 – X)/Z
[22:49:32] <lakitu> uh oh
[22:51:30] <lakitu> https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=plot+Y+%3D+X+-+%281-X%29%2FZ
[22:51:33] <^411> — “plot Y = X – (1-X)/Z – Wolfram|Alpha”
[22:51:55] <lakitu> there’s a 3d plot of the Kelly investing strategy
[22:52:28] <lakitu> X is chance (of winning), Z is payoff, Y is how much (as a percent of total wealth) you should invest, according to it
[22:57:11] <inhahe> lakitu i have a bot on undernet with a couple of neat features, modules i made myself, if you want him in here.
[22:57:21] <inhahe> i’ll show you the features
[22:57:46] <inhahe> [00:57] <inhahe> %inspirobot
[22:57:47] <inhahe> [00:57] <dumb_bot> inhahe: If you stop liberty
[22:57:47] <inhahe> [00:57] <dumb_bot> inhahe: you also stop wisdom.
[22:57:47] <inhahe> [00:57] <dumb_bot> inhahe: Observe how your bowels are reacting relatively to nature.
[22:58:07] <inhahe> [00:57] <inhahe> %inspirobot
[22:58:07] <inhahe> [00:57] <dumb_bot> inhahe: Maybe trapped souls can become scary when you become president?
[22:58:07] <inhahe> [00:57] <dumb_bot> inhahe: Try to think about how a great master once said: Get dated.
[22:58:34] <inhahe> [00:58] <inhahe> %define lakitu
[22:58:34] <inhahe> [00:58] <dumb_bot> inhahe: lakitu. noun.
[22:58:34] <inhahe> [00:58] <dumb_bot> inhahe: Definition: a person appointed to supervise and advise and keep an office or check on; an assistant.
[22:58:34] <inhahe> [00:58] <dumb_bot> inhahe: Example: they are known as the Lakitu in Bolivia
[22:58:56] <inhahe> [00:58] <inhahe> %define lakitu
[22:58:57] <inhahe> [00:58] <dumb_bot> inhahe: lakitu. noun [in singular].
[22:58:57] <inhahe> [00:58] <dumb_bot> inhahe: Definition: the quality or state of having lost a religious or moral compass; lukewarmness
[22:58:57] <inhahe> [00:58] <dumb_bot> inhahe: Example: I cannot help but look at this as a lakitu
[22:59:04] <inhahe> both commands are AI
[22:59:33] <inhahe> (i didn’t create the AI models, I just made the plugins that use them)
[23:01:44] <lakitu> ControlFreq, kblom, are there any useful mathematical transformations you can think of to make on the Kelly investing strategy equation – e.g. integration, etc?
[23:02:19] <lakitu> hmmm
[23:02:36] <kblom> no
[23:03:10] <lakitu> let me know if you think of any
[23:03:15] <lakitu> hmmm
[23:08:58] <lakitu> interesting solving for Y (Kelly percent of wealth to invest) = .5 (50%) – the “Z solution” form is pretty simple https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=solve+Y+%3D+X+-+%281+-+X%29%2FZ+for+Y%3D.5
[23:09:02] <^411> — “solve Y = X – (1 – X)/Z for Y=.5 – Wolfram|Alpha”
[23:11:13] <lakitu> that steep incline on the left in the first link (toward the center) is how dramatically you’re supposed to invest your wealth for likely enough, big enough rewards
[23:16:01] <lakitu> to watch the model run, it’s betting 50% of its wealth as a matter of course– regularly. huge gains, some huge losses. you only invest when chances are over 50% in your favor, & then the percent of your wealth the equation calculates. I am actually drawing up memorable fractions to use for chances & payoffs, to memorize like you would musical note
[23:16:01] <lakitu> s, for rote investment-strategy informal calculation recall
[23:16:43] * lakitu hums a root, perfect fifth alternating bassline – like you would for committing musical notes to memory
[23:18:14] <lakitu> I am also going to find memorable examples of different cases of chance & reward in investments to use as mnemonic examples for like ‘high-risk, high-reward investments’ or ‘low-risk, low-reward investments’ to better understand how to handle them when I come upon them
[23:19:07] <lakitu> & then use the investment strategy for how much to invest– be it effort, writing, whatever
[23:20:12] <lakitu> that is what I did most of the day with the computer model, making it calculate Kelly percents & payoff ratios for different combinations of chances (of winning) & reward amounts
[23:22:29] <lakitu> I did it to learn the “lay of the land” of the Kelly investment strategy – which they say is the maximal growth strategy in those 3 variables: chance of winning, reward amount, & investment amount – meaning this is for investments.
[23:22:52] <lakitu> ((I said telephone, apparently it was for television.))
[23:24:28] <lakitu> I think this approach may be useful for edifying/helpful formula in general – committing reference values to memory
[23:25:17] <lakitu> I chose about 3-4 chances of winning, & 3 reward amounts, for a total of 3-to-4 * 3 = 9-to-12 Kelly percents of wealth you should invest to memorize
[23:25:34] <lakitu> along with the chances of winning & reward amounts
[23:26:38] <lakitu> sometimes you should invest 50% of your wealth, sometimes you should invest 88%, with this
[23:27:07] <lakitu> it’s the most aggressive it can be without sacrificing growth
[23:27:13] <lakitu> so, optimally aggressive.
[23:29:58] <lakitu> we find we are often “risk-averse” when it comes to having the balls to pay enough of our wealth facing low-chance, high-reward investments. but you have to learn when to do that & when to pull back
[23:30:19] <lakitu> first, you NEVER bet unless it’s over 50% chances in your favor.
[23:36:39] <lakitu> but it is tearin’ it up, for what amount of wealth you’re supposed to bet.
[23:37:39] <lakitu> like check this out – inhahe, if you had $100,000 to invest & a 2 in 3 chance of quintupling your money, how much would you bet?
[23:37:43] <lakitu> if you want to play along
[23:37:59] <lakitu> try to give you rusual answer
[23:38:01] <lakitu> your usual answer
[23:38:06] <inhahe> lakitu did you see me asking about my bot?
[23:38:13] <lakitu> like not incorporating this equation
[23:38:14] <lakitu> yes I’m sorry
[23:38:22] <lakitu> I got disconneted, then my tablet ran low on battery
[23:38:55] <lakitu> what does it all do besides the inspirobot & fake definitions thing?
[23:39:10] <inhahe> dict
[23:39:14] <inhahe> url snarfer
[23:39:28] <lakitu> ok – shows url titles?
[23:39:33] <inhahe> yeah
[23:39:35] <lakitu> ok
[23:39:38] <lakitu> what dictionary?
[23:39:41] <lakitu> this could be good.
[23:39:49] <inhahe> i think it’s more than one
[23:39:53] <lakitu> then tell me how much you’d invest
[23:40:25] <inhahe> [01:39] <inhahe> %dict dictionary
[23:40:25] <inhahe> [01:39] <dumb_bot> inhahe: wn, devil, foldoc, gcide, and moby-thesaurus responded: foldoc: dictionary 1. {data dictionary}. 2. {associative array}. 3. {Free On-line Dictionary of Computing}. ; wn: dictionary n 1: a reference book containing an alphabetical list of words with information about them [syn: {dictionary}, {lexicon}]; devil: DICTIONARY, n. A malevolent literary device for cramping
[23:40:25] <inhahe> the growth
[23:40:25] <inhahe> [01:39] <dumb_bot> of a language and making it hard and inelastic. This dictionary, however, is a most useful work. ; moby-thesaurus: 37 Moby Thesaurus words for “dictionary”: biographical dictionary, cant, chemical dictionary, desk dictionary, dialect dictionary, dictionary of quotations, electronics dictionary, etymological dictionary, foreign-language dictionary, gazetteer, general dictionary,
[23:40:29] <inhahe> geological
[23:40:31] <inhahe> [01:39] <dumb_bot> dictionary, gloss, glossary, gradus, jargon, language, lexicon, nomenclator, onomasticon, palaver, phrase book, polyglot dictionary, promptorium, rhyming dictionary, science dictionary, slang dictionary, specialized dictionary, synonym dictionary, synonymy, terminology, thesaurus, treasury of words, unabridged dictionary, vocabulary, word list, wordbook ; gcide: Dictionary
[23:40:37] <inhahe> \Dic”tionary\,
[23:40:39] <inhahe> [01:40] <dumb_bot> n.; pl. {Dictionaries}. [Cf. F. dictionnaire. See {Diction}.] 1. A book containing the words of a language, arranged alphabetically, with explanations of their meanings; a lexicon; a vocabulary; a wordbook. [1913 Webster] I applied myself to the perusal of our writers; and noting whatever might be of use to ascertain or illustrate any word or phrase, accumulated in time the
[23:40:43] <inhahe> materials of a
[23:40:45] <inhahe> [01:40] <dumb_bot> dictionary. –Johnson. [1913 Webster] 2. Hence, a book containing the words belonging to any system or province of knowledge, arranged alphabetically; as, a dictionary of medicine or of botany; a biographical dictionary. [1913 Webster]
[23:41:21] <inhahe> i think i’d invest somewhere between 40k and 60k
[23:41:38] <inhahe> what does kelly say`?
[23:41:39] <lakitu> ok – great– honesty, I appreciate that
[23:41:45] <lakitu> – yes, the bot is in
[23:41:50] <lakitu> – re Kelly,
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[23:44:01] <lakitu> Y = X – (1-X)/Z; solve for Y when X=.667, Z=5
[23:44:08] <lakitu> so that’s the situation we described
[23:44:17] <lakitu> in the Kelly investment strategy
[23:44:34] <lakitu> formula
[23:44:45] <lakitu> oh
[23:44:50] <lakitu> .wolfram Y = X – (1-X)/Z; solve for Y when X=.667, Z=5
[23:44:55] <^411> {Y = X – (1 – X)/Z, Y X = 0.667, Z = 5} = {(X – 1)/Z + X = Y, X Y = 0.667, Z = 5}
[23:44:57] <^411> {Y = X – (1 – X)/Z, Y X = 0.667, Z = 5} = {(X – 1)/Z + X = Y, X Y = 0.667, Z = 5}
[23:45:01] *** Quits: mazy^grace ([email protected]) (Read error: Operation timed out)
[23:45:55] <lakitu> now that’s a very huge bet – 40 to 60k when you have only 100,000 total
[23:46:15] <lakitu> on this page, it says to bet about 80% of your total wealth – 80k.
[23:46:16] <lakitu> https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=Y+%3D+X+-+%281-X%29%2FZ%3B+solve+for+Y+when+X%3D.667%2C+Z%3D5
[23:46:18] <dumb_bot> ^ Y = X – (1-X)/Z; solve for Y when X=.667, Z=5 – Wolfram|Alpha
[23:46:19] <^411> — “Y = X – (1-X)/Z; solve for Y when X=.667, Z=5 – Wolfram|Alpha”
[23:46:43] <lakitu> to invest – about 80% of your wealth.
[23:47:06] <lakitu> i think many people would say a paltry amount, esp. not in context of the last couple days of chatting about this.
[23:47:49] <lakitu> so right off the bat – you have 100,000$– it’s telling you to invest 80k in one investment
[23:47:56] <lakitu> few people approach investing that way
[23:48:06] <lakitu> it’s kind of liberating
[23:48:14] <lakitu> we can play big.
[23:48:44] <lakitu> we can put a lot on something, if the conditions are right.
[23:49:30] <lakitu> the defense mechanism it uses for losing in such a situation is to just keep only spending a percent of the wealth – the right percent for optimal growth – so you can battle back if you get that 1/3 loss
[23:49:46] <inhahe> i kinda figure if i ever start gambling, e.g. in the stock market, i’ll always keep half my money and gamble the other half
[23:49:59] <inhahe> just to make sure i never lose it all
[23:50:00] <lakitu> well, this is all kinds of investment
[23:50:05] <lakitu> effort, even
[23:50:15] <lakitu> whether to invest yourself in an enterprise or skip
[23:50:22] <lakitu> or go in huge on it
[23:50:46] *** Quits: dumb_bot ([email protected]) (Quit: inhahe)
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[23:51:39] <inhahe> do you know if undernet supports sasl?
[23:51:50] <inhahe> i’m trying to get my bot logged on as me
[23:51:52] <lakitu> I think it doesn’t, but you’d have to check
[23:52:19] <lakitu> I think people do that using a (IRC) bouncer
[23:52:46] <lakitu> here’s some more examples:
[23:54:41] *** Quits: dumb_bot ([email protected]) (Quit: inhahe)
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[23:56:44] <lakitu> https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=Y+%3D+X+-+%281-X%29%2FZ%3B+solve+for+Y+when+X%3D.667%2C+Z%3D2 < 78% of your wealth
[23:56:47] <^411> — “Y = X – (1-X)/Z; solve for Y when X=.667, Z=2 – Wolfram|Alpha”
[23:56:49] <dumb_bot> ^ Y = X – (1-X)/Z; solve for Y when X=.667, Z=2 – Wolfram|Alpha
[23:56:52] <lakitu> oops
[23:56:54] <lakitu> oh yeah
[23:56:57] <lakitu> https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=Y+%3D+X+-+%281-X%29%2FZ%3B+solve+for+Y+when+X%3D.667%2C+Z%3D2 <
[23:56:58] <dumb_bot> ^ Y = X – (1-X)/Z; solve for Y when X=.667, Z=2 – Wolfram|Alpha
[23:57:00] <^411> — “Y = X – (1-X)/Z; solve for Y when X=.667, Z=2 – Wolfram|Alpha”
[23:57:48] <lakitu> on a 2/3rds chance of doulbling your money, bet *78%*.
[23:58:02] <lakitu> on a 2/3rds chance of doubling your money, bet *78%*.
[23:58:04] <lakitu> *
[23:58:48] <lakitu> we are unwashed, this is like “lakitu is going crazy!!” if I bet 78% of the wealth in that situation
[23:58:48] *** Quits: dumb_bot ([email protected]) (Quit: inhahe)
[23:59:22] <lakitu> but it’s growth optimal, per Kelly investment strategy figures.

[00:00:25] <lakitu> it leads to maximal growth
[00:00:46] <lakitu> but it leads to maximal growth, per Kelly investment strategy figures.
[00:02:58] <lakitu> .wolfram Y = X – (1-X)/Z; solve for Y when X=.8, Z=3
[00:03:04] <^411> {Y = X – (1 – X)/Z, Y X = 0.8, Z = 3} = {(X – 1)/Z + X = Y, X Y = 0.8, Z = 3}
[00:03:06] <^411> {Y = X – (1 – X)/Z, Y X = 0.8, Z = 3} = {(X – 1)/Z + X = Y, X Y = 0.8, Z = 3}
[00:04:17] <lakitu> 88% of your wealth > https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=Y+%3D+X+-+%281-X%29%2FZ%3B+solve+for+Y+when+X%3D.8%2C+Z%3D3
[00:04:20] <^411> — “Y = X – (1-X)/Z; solve for Y when X=.8, Z=3 – Wolfram|Alpha”
[00:05:28] <lakitu> few people are ready to be that ballsy. but it’s growth maximal.
[00:06:48] <lakitu> we have become scaredy cats. most people would probably bet a very low amount & ‘gladly feel safe’ facing a 80%, triple-your-money investment
[00:07:03] <lakitu> ‘yeah but there’s a 20% chance I’ll lose’
[00:07:36] <lakitu> it’s crazy – but this is exactly what I wanted to learn asking about investment wisdom
[00:09:10] <lakitu> 88% says, “Are you ready to ride balls to the wall?” haha – & it’s growth maximal.
[00:09:25] *** Joins: dumb_bot ([email protected])
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[00:09:42] <lakitu> wb bumb dot.
[00:10:08] <lakitu> inhahe! this investment thing is important
[00:10:25] <lakitu> don’t miss out for the bot trifles, here
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[00:12:24] <inhahe> the algorithm probably assumes that 100 dollars is ten times better than 10 dollars, 1000 dollars is 10 times better than 100 dollars, 1000000 dollars is 1000 better than 1000 dollars, etc.
[00:12:30] <inhahe> i’m sure it does
[00:12:35] <inhahe> but that’s not how life actually works
[00:12:51] <lakitu> you mean re expected utility – that theory?
[00:13:10] <inhahe> i don’t know that term. one term that comes to mind is diminishing returns.
[00:13:40] <lakitu> that’s the idea – a rich person has less use for $1,000 than a homeless person
[00:14:10] <inhahe> like maybe someone is reeeeeeeeeeeally averse to being broke
[00:14:17] <lakitu> heh
[00:14:25] <inhahe> but it’s no big difference to them whether they have 10,000,000 or 100,000,000
[00:14:34] <inhahe> kelly wouldn’t account for that
[00:15:18] <lakitu> diminishing returns literally would mean you get back less & less as you do something more & more…
[00:16:32] <lakitu> how doesn’t kelly account for that?
[00:19:39] <inhahe> it can’t know how much you hate being poor or value diferent gradations of richness
[00:19:45] <inhahe> it’s not linear
[00:19:45] <lakitu> ok
[00:19:54] <lakitu> that’s expected utility, in economics terms
[00:20:41] <lakitu> but it’s still ‘compatible’ with that: if you don’t have interest in a certain investment/reward/chance, you can just decline investing.
[00:21:00] <inhahe> mm
[00:21:19] <inhahe> or invest less
[00:21:28] <lakitu> – right
[00:21:30] <inhahe> but you’d be winging it
[00:21:43] <inhahe> no science behind it
[00:22:12] <lakitu> well betting less than the maximal growth is always safer than investing the maximal growth investment
[00:22:19] <lakitu> you risk less loss
[00:22:20] <inhahe> nod
[00:22:31] <lakitu> it doesn’t mathematically account for our feelings toward money, but I don’t typically want that from an equation, anyway
[00:22:45] <inhahe> ok
[00:29:37] <lakitu> I see Mathematica had some kind of glitch / misparsing, will have to recompute some of those
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[00:48:53] <lakitu> weclome back Zshurp!!
[00:48:55] <lakitu> you remembered
[00:49:42] <lakitu> we’re talking about the Kelly investment strategy – the math of it
[00:49:50] <ZShurp> hi lakitu
[00:49:57] <lakitu> .wiki Kelly criterion
[00:49:57] <ZShurp> I like math
[00:50:00] <^411> “In probability theory and intertemporal portfolio choice, the Kelly criterion (or Kelly strategy or Kelly bet), also known as the scientific gambling method, is a formula for bet sizing that leads almost surely (under the assumption of known expected returns) to higher wealth compared to any other strategy in the long run (i.e. approaching the limit as the number of bets goes to infinity). The Kelly bet size is (…)”
[00:50:03] <lakitu> you good at it?
[00:50:06] <^411> “found by maximizing the expected value of the logarithm of wealth, which is equivalent to maximizing the expected geometric growth rate. The Kelly criterion is to bet a predetermined fraction of assets, and it can seem counterintuitive. It was described by J. L. Kelly Jr, a researcher at Bell Labs, in 1956.[1] For an even money bet, the Kelly criterion computes the wager size percentage by multiplying (…)”
[00:50:10] <ZShurp> I also have a 100′ fever from Moderna 2.0 so I’m not sure how useful I am
[00:50:12] <^411> “the percent chance to win by two, then subtracting one-hundred percent. So, for a bet with a 70% chance to win the optimal wager size is 40% of available funds. The practical use of the formula has been demonstrated for gambling[2][3] and the same idea was used to explain diversification in investment management.[4] In the 2000s, Kelly-style analysis became a part of mainstream (…)”
[00:50:14] <^411> — from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion
[00:50:15] <dumb_bot> ^ In probability theory and intertemporal portfolio choice, the Kelly criterion, also known as the scientific gambling method, is a formula for bet sizing that leads almost surely to higher wealth compared to any other strategy in the…
[00:50:17] <lakitu> oh no
[00:50:23] <lakitu> well in that case, take it easy
[00:50:32] <lakitu> I’m just playing with a math program re it
[00:50:39] <lakitu> we can talk about it another time
[00:50:43] <lakitu> or you can read it later
[00:50:52] <ZShurp> I’m familiar with the idea. Assuming the house odds are stacked in your favor, how much should you bet at once?
[00:50:58] <lakitu> right!
[00:51:05] <lakitu> it’s growth maximal
[00:51:09] <lakitu> & very aggressive
[00:51:16] <lakitu> (optimally aggressive,
[00:51:18] <lakitu> actually)
[00:51:30] <lakitu> ((optimally aggressive, actually))
[00:52:03] <lakitu> you shouldn’t be talking about investment formulas with a 100 degree temp
[00:52:06] <ZShurp> yeah, but who runs a casino stacked in your favor?
[00:52:19] <ZShurp> I should be sleeping, but certain bits are in too much pain atm
[00:52:44] <lakitu> I should get to sleep soon too
[00:53:17] <lakitu> there are health problems around. I’m talking to people who have insomnia.
[00:53:30] <ZShurp> yah, insomnia sucks, get some sleep if you can
[00:58:26] <lakitu> you mentioned casinos – I’m interpreting this abstractly, as about any kind of investment – even investments of effort, or really anything you can think of you invest
[00:58:58] <lakitu> brb, peanut butter toast ????
[00:59:08] <ZShurp> interesting idea. Gardening investment :)
[01:00:08] <lakitu> right
[01:01:18] <lakitu> that’s what I am trying to learn about – money just happens to be the best way to read about it as a metaphor (investments)
[01:01:43] <lakitu> to read as metaphor.
[01:03:21] <lakitu> .ety metaphor
[01:03:24] <^411> “‘figure of speech by which a characteristic of one object is assigned to another, different but resembling  it or analogous to it; comparison by transference of a descriptive word or phrase,’ late 15c., methaphoris (plural), from French metaphore (Old French metafore, 13c.) and directly from Latin metaphora, from Greek metaphora ‘a transfer,’ especially of the sense of one word to a different word, (…)
[01:03:30] <^411> literally ‘a carrying over,’ from metapherein ‘to transfer, carry over; change, alter; to use a word in a strange sense,’ from meta ‘over, across’ (see meta-) + pherein ‘to carry, bear’ (from PIE root *bher- (1) ‘to carry,’ also ‘to bear children’). But a metaphor is no argument, though it be sometimes the gunpowder to drive one home and imbed it in the memory. James Russell Lowell, ‘Democracy,’ 1884
[01:03:35] <ZShurp> So how do you apply the theorm to different kinds of wagers? Say you’re deciding how many peppers, tomatoes, squash, and eggplant to plant…
[01:03:35] <^411> It is a great thing, indeed, to make a proper use of the poetical forms, as also of compounds and strange words. But the greatest thing by far is to be a master of metaphor. It is the one thing that cannot be learnt from others; and it is also a sign of genius, since a good metaphor implies an intuitive perception of the similarity in dissimilars. [Aristotle, ‘Poetics,’ 1459a 3-8] “
[01:03:37] <^411> — from https://www.etymonline.com/word/metaphor
[01:03:38] <dumb_bot> ^ metaphor | Origin and meaning of metaphor by Online Etymology Dictionary
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[01:04:04] <lakitu> well, I’ve been trying to learn the lay of the land of the math, so far
[01:04:16] <lakitu> what values it gives for other values of variables in it
[01:05:31] <lakitu> it takes some time to get a feel for what it says to invest given chances of winning & reward amounts, but once I get that down, intuitive, internalized, I will be be able to make it 2nd nature;
[01:05:47] <lakitu> for now I’d have to work that out from scratch
[01:06:35] <ZShurp> sounds good, let me know when you get there
[01:07:02] <lakitu> there’s chance of success, reward amount; maybe planting garden vegetables would be too slight to figure the formula on
[01:07:13] <lakitu> but e.g.
[01:08:34] <lakitu> well – yeah
[01:09:22] <lakitu> it will take a while to get it understood intuitively
[01:10:00] <lakitu> but I wrote a computer model of it, that runs simulations using the strategy to invest, thru many investments, to see how it performs.
[01:16:46] <lakitu> I wrote a quote bot
[01:16:54] <lakitu> if you’re not just soused with fever
[01:17:00] <lakitu> .quote Dolly Parton
[01:17:04] <^411> “I think that if I am smart in business, it’s just that I’m smart about who I am. I know what I can, can’t, will and won’t do, and if I have to be strict about that, I will.”
[01:17:05] <^411> — Dolly Parton, from https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Dolly_Parton
[01:17:06] <dumb_bot> ^ Dolly Parton – Wikiquote
[01:17:08] <ZShurp> ok, bed time
[01:17:10] <lakitu> ok
[01:17:12] <lakitu> see you!
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[01:17:32] <lakitu> sounded sick . . .
[01:21:19] <lakitu> so it’s 4/5ths of your wealth you should invest if you have a 5 our of 6 chance of quintupling your money, it says on the page without the coding problem: https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=Y+%3D+X+-+%281-X%29%2FZ%2C+X%3D.667%2C+Z%3D3%2C+Y+in+decimal
[01:21:20] <dumb_bot> ^ Y = X – (1-X)/Z, X=.667, Z=3, Y in decimal – Wolfram|Alpha
[01:21:21] <^411> — “Y = X – (1-X)/Z, X=.667, Z=3, Y in decimal – Wolfram|Alpha”
[01:21:31] <lakitu> oops:
[01:21:36] <lakitu> wrong link?
[01:22:01] <lakitu> oh, the link didn’t update on his site: {Y = X – (1-X)/Z, Z=5, Y=.8} is what you’d have to paste
[01:22:14] <lakitu> on www.wolframalpha.com
[01:23:44] <lakitu> (or you can omit the {}s (braces): Y = X – (1-X)/Z, Z=5, Y=.8)
[01:28:55] <lakitu> on 75% chance to triple your money, you should invest 2/3rds of your wealth, the Kelly equation says: `Y = X – (1-X)/Z, Z=3; Y=.667, X` on wolframalpha.com
[01:29:09] <lakitu> gotta sleep
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[13:44:45] * lakitu detoxifying himself & defeating pathogens & (in current terminology) other parasites, with plant juice
[13:45:52] <lakitu> pathogens are harmful bacteria, harmful viruses, harmful fungi, & parasites which are small enough to be classified as pathogens; then there are parasites larger than that small of scale.
[13:46:10] <lakitu> is how the terminology works, in our time.
[13:46:39] <lakitu> .ety pathogen
[13:47:19] <lakitu> maybe timing out.
[13:47:58] <^411> “also pathogene, ‘disease-producing micro-organism,’ 1880, a back-formation from pathogenic.”
[13:48:01] <^411> — from https://www.etymonline.com/word/pathogen
[13:48:25] <lakitu> I got disconnected:
[13:48:26] <lakitu> [14:44:45] @lakitu detoxifying himself & defeating pathogens & (in current terminology) other parasites, with plant juice
[13:48:26] <lakitu> [14:45:52] <@lakitu> pathogens are harmful bacteria, harmful viruses, harmful fungi, & parasites which are small enough to be classified as pathogens; then there are parasites larger than that small of scale.
[13:48:26] <lakitu> [14:46:10] <@lakitu> is how the terminology works, in our time.
[13:48:26] <lakitu> [14:46:39] <@lakitu> .ety pathogen
[13:48:26] <lakitu> [14:47:19] <@lakitu> maybe timing out.
[13:49:42] <lakitu> .ety pathogen
[13:49:46] <^411> “also pathogene, ‘disease-producing micro-organism,’ 1880, a back-formation from pathogenic.”
[13:49:49] <^411> — from https://www.etymonline.com/word/pathogen
[13:49:58] <lakitu> .ety pathogenic
[13:50:02] <^411> “‘producing disease,’ 1836, from French pathogénique, from Greek pathos ‘disease’ (from PIE root *kwent(h)- ‘to suffer’) + French -génique ‘producing’ (see -gen). Related: Pathogenetic (1838); pathogenicity.”
[13:50:04] <^411> — from https://www.etymonline.com/word/pathogenic
[13:50:48] <lakitu> .ety -gen
[13:50:52] <^411> “word-forming element technically meaning ‘something produced,’ but mainly, in modern use, ‘thing that produces or causes,’ from French -gène (18c.), from Greek -genes ‘born of, produced by,’ which is from the same source as genos ‘birth,’ genea ‘race, family,’ from PIE root *gene- ‘give birth, beget,’ with derivatives referring to procreation and familial and tribal groups. First used in late 18th (…)
[13:50:54] <^411> century French chemistry (see oxygen), it probably involves a misunderstanding of -genes, as though it meant ‘that which produces.'”
[13:50:56] <^411> — from https://www.etymonline.com/word/-gen
[13:51:42] <lakitu> (=
[13:56:37] <lakitu> so one answer to how do we invest wisely is, with the Kelly investment strategy.
[13:57:02] <lakitu> * so one answer to “How do we invest wisely?” is, with the Kelly investment strategy.
[13:57:32] <lakitu> (is*)
[13:58:06] <lakitu> W – (1-W)/R.
[13:59:15] <lakitu> where is W is the chance (of winning) & R is the payoff ratio, e.g. 1.4 if you get $14 for every $10 invested.
[14:01:07] <lakitu> that whole expression (W – (1-W)/R) gives you the percent of your wealth the– they say!– growth maximal investment strategy says you should invest there
[14:01:24] <lakitu> e.g .5 – meaning half your wealth
[14:03:55] <lakitu> percent\fraction, I should say.
[14:04:31] <lakitu> it will give the fraction of your wealth – don’t try to divide it by 100.
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[14:51:34] <lakitu> in GNU Octave, which is free & runs on Windows, if you want to have your own Kelly function calculator, use this code:
[14:52:05] <lakitu> `function kelly = kellyratio (W,R)
[14:52:36] <lakitu> kelly = W-(1-W)/R
[14:52:40] <lakitu> endfunction`
[14:52:45] <lakitu> (without the backticks.)
[14:52:48] <lakitu> then, to use it:
[14:54:04] <lakitu> type e.g `kellyratio(2/3,5)`, for a 2 out of 3 chance of a 5X return on your money
[14:54:36] <lakitu> it should print “ans = 0.6000”, meaning Kelly says you should invest 60% of your wealth in that situation.
[14:55:59] <lakitu> you can experiment with different situations – 3 out of 4 odds, 2X returns, etc, to see what Kelly says to do in different situations
[14:57:01] <lakitu> this should also work in MATLAB, if you have that.
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